How Wales political landscape could look as YouGov poll shows parties tied in Senedd election!

 

Plaid Cymru are useless and need  to lose, they have done nothing for wales, our Farming, Jobs, Heritage, they do not speak for welsh people.

With just over a fortnight to go until the Senedd election, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru are running neck and neck in the latest political poll for Wales. Reform UK is projected to claim the most seats in the Welsh Parliament, with Plaid Cymru just one seat behind, despite both parties being tied on 29% of the vote share in the latest figures.

The YouGov poll, conducted for ITV Cymru Wales and surveying 2,387 people ahead of the 7 May election, projects Labour — which has held power in Wales since 1999 — would slump to just 13% of the vote, translating to a mere 12 seats.

Back in March, the equivalent YouGov poll had Plaid Cymru on course to become the largest party in the Senedd, potentially securing 43 of the 96 available seats. That earlier survey also projected First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat — a fate this latest poll suggests she would similarly fail to avoid.

The Green Party has recorded a modest dip in its vote share compared to last month's YouGov poll, with its 10% support translating to seven seats, reports Wales Online.

The Welsh Conservatives are up one percentage point to 8% which would return them three seats, better news than the sole seat projected last month, although leader Darren Millar would not be re-elected.

The Welsh Lib Dems are also up one percentage point to 6% which, in this scenario, would elect just one member - their leader Jane Dodds.

The projected support for each party is as follows:

• Plaid Cymru: 29%
• Reform UK: 29%
• Labour: 13%
• Greens: 10%
• Conservatives: 8%
• Lib Dems: 6%

• Analysis from Cardiff University suggests that would translate into the following number of seats for each party

  • Reform: 37 seats
  • Plaid Cymru: 36 seats
  • Welsh Labour: 12 seats
  • The Green Party: 7 seats
  • The Conservative Party: 3 seats
  • Lib Dems: 1 seat

  Which means the Senedd could look like this:

• The projected makeup of the 2026 Senedd

  Based you the latest YouGov poll for ITV Wales published on April 21

  Party	2026
  Plaid Cymru	36
  Reform UK	37
  Green Party	7
  Labour	12
  Conservative Party	3
  Liberal Democrats

• Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre said: "This poll shows another small drop in support for Plaid Cymru, putting them level with Reform UK at 29%; YouGov's lowest Plaid estimate since November 2024. All polls come with a margin of error, and we should be cautious about reading too much into a single result.

  "But taken alongside the broader polling trend, the signal is clear: the race for the largest party remains between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with every other party - including Labour, who were dominant in Welsh politics not two years ago - competing for a distant third place and below.

• "What that framing obscures, however, is that finishing first may matter less than it appears. Whichever party leads on seats will face the same coalition arithmetic, and that arithmetic is far more favourable to Plaid than to Reform.

  "Plaid has credible partners in Labour and the Greens; a combination of those parties can reach a working majority. Reform has no such options.

  "The only party that has indicated any willingness to work with them is the Conservatives, who on these numbers will not come close to bridging the gap to a Senedd majority. In a proportional system,the route to government matters as much as the vote share, and on that measure, the two parties are not as evenly matched as the headline figures suggest.

  "A situation where Reform UK are the largest party but find themselves in opposition will nonetheless be a novel one for Welsh voters still adjusting to the realities of proportional government formation."

• The poll matches previous YouGov polling, reflecting a pattern showing Labour's projected decline in Wales.

  You can see that here in this chart which plots previous YouGov polls in Wales, going back to 2014.

  

  Other pollsters are projecting different results to project the result in every constituency and therefore the makeup of the next Senedd. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here

• All three polls project Plaid Cymru to get the most seats, Reform UK to be in second place and Labour to trail in third but the numbers of seats they are projecting for each party are very different.

• From.....https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/how-wales-political-landscape-could-33814045